Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

Posted in July 3rd, 2009

This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is also featured in the Summer 2009 issue of The Social Contract Quarterly www.thesocialcontract.com. The essay explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions. I'd add that the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time.

(I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production).

Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standards of Living

Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living

By Richard Duncan

“Standard of Living” is often (not always) measured by money spent per head. Economists acknowledge that this is a poor measure of welfare – especially during these times of economic turmoil when fiat money becomes unable to purchase basic necessities (e.g., Zimbabwe, recent food riots).

Since the consumption of energy is the prerequisite for all economic activity, “energy consumption” instead of “money consumption,” is a more accurate long term metric for measuring welfare.

Abstract

This study is based on: (1) historic population and energy data from 1965 to 2008 and (2) backup studies by several scientists. The Olduvai Theory is explained by disaggregating the World into the U.S., the OECD nations, and the non-OECD nations standards of living (SL). The U.S. SL peaked in 1973 (Figure 1). The World SL rapidly increased from 2000 to 2007 (Figure 2). This increase was caused by just a few non-OECD nations (Figure 3). The OECD SL peaked in 2005 (Figure 4). The Olduvai Theory shows each SL curve trending toward the same average SL value that the World had in 1930 (Figure 5).

Introduction

The Olduvai Theory (OT) is defined by the rise and fall of the World standard of living (SL). The main population data are from OECD (2008) and the main energy data are from BP (2008). The OT is quantified by dividing World population (P) into World energy consumption (E): SL = E/P. ¹

Suddenly however, in June 2008 I was pressed to explain the rapid rise in the World SL from 2000 to 2007. The cause turned out to be the rapid rise of the SL in just a few of the 165 non-OECD (‘underdeveloped’) nations: namely China, India and Brazil. In contrast the SL of the 30 OECD (‘developed’) nations peaked in 2005 and has since declined.

Population and energy data from 1965 to 2007, OECD data for 2008 and early 2009, and OECD projections to 2010 are the basis for a scenario toward re-equalizing the World SL from 2008 to 2030.

Backup studies are referenced, quoted and discussed:

M. King Hubbert presented an Olduvai-like hypothesis to the AAAS Centennial Conference in 1948 and published it in Science in 1949.
Jay W. Forrester in 1971/1973 used feedback modeling to show the likelihood of overshoot and collapse of the World ‘STEP’ system.
Walter Youngquist (advance copy ms. GeoDestinies, 2009) describes the grave problems resulting from U.S. and World population growth coupled to the depletion of Earth resources.

Three Geo/STEP Scientists

This section highlights how a Geophysicist, a Systems Scientist and a Petroleum Geologist viewed/view the past and project the future of Industrial Civilization.

M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)

Geophysicist and Professor Emeritus, Columbia University — gave an invited presentation to the Centennial Conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in 1948 titled “Energy from Fossil Fuels.” In it he sketched and discussed an Olduvai-like scenario. His presentation was published in Science, 1949.

Human Affairs in Time Perspective

The present state of human affairs can best be appreciated in the light of a time perspective, minus and plus, of some tens of thousands of years from the present, as depicted in Fig. 8 [frame #1]. On such a time scale the phenomena we have discussed are represented by abrupt, nearly vertical rises from zero or near zero to maximum values. The consumption of energy from fossil fuels is thus seen to be but a “pip,” rising sharply from zero to a maximum, and almost as sharply declining, and thus representing but a moment in the total human history.

Likewise the consumption of energy per capita [Fig. 8, frame #3}, after having risen very gradually from 2,000 to possibly 10,000 kilogram calories per day, is seen to increase suddenly to a maximum value of several times the highest previous value. Again it is physically possible to maintain a high value, as indicated by Curve I, on a stable basis for an indefinite period of time from current energy sources, particularly direct and indirect solar radiation. It is also possible, however, that through cultural degeneration this curve may decline, as in Curve II, to the subsistence level of our agrarian ancestors.²

Viewed on such a time scale [Fig. 8, frame #4], the curve of human population would be flat and only slightly above zero for all preceding human history, and then it too would be seen to rise abruptly and almost vertically to a maximum value of several billion. Thereafter, depending largely upon what energy supplies are available, it might stabilize at a maximum value, as in Curve I, or more probably to a lower and more nearly optimum value, as in Curve II. However, should cultural degeneration occur so that the available energy resources should not be utilized, the human population would undoubtedly be reduced to a number appropriate to an agrarian existence, as in Curve III.

These sharp breaks in all the foregoing curves can be ascribed quite definitely, directly or indirectly, to the tapping of the large supplies of energy stored up in the fossil fuels. The release of this energy is a unidirectional and irreversible process. It can only happen once, and the historical events associated with this release are necessarily without precedent, and are intrinsically incapable of repetition.

It is clear, therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical front slopes of these curves is a precarious one, and that the events which we are witnessing and experiencing, far from being “normal,” are among the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the World. Yet we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future, which we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have experienced thus far.

M. King Hubbert, Science, 1949, p. 103-109

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Jay W. Forrester

Electrical Engineer, Computer Scientist and Professor Emeritus, Sloan School of Management, MIT — has a remarkable record of innovations and applications in both hardware and software. This essay focuses on his groundbreaking book, World Dynamics (1971/1973) wherein he uses feedback control theory to model the World STEP system.

The World Situation

Many global attitudes and programs seem to be based on accepting future growth in population as preordained and as the basis for action. But, if we make provision for rising population, population responds by rising. What is to stop the exponential growth? This book describes the circular processes of our social systems in which there is no uni-directional cause and effect. Instead, a ring of actions and consequences close back on themselves. One can say, incompletely, that population will grow and that cities, space, and food must be provided. But one can likewise say, also incompletely, that the provision of cities, space, and food will cause population to grow. Population generates the pressures to support growth of population. But supporting the growth leads to more population. Growth will stop only in the face of enough pressure to suppress the internal dynamic forces of expansion.

Many programs—for example the development of more productive grains and agricultural methods—are spoken of as “buying time” until population control becomes effective. But the process of buying time reduces the pressures that force population control.

Any proposed program for the future must deal with both the quality of life and the factors affecting population. “Raising the quality of life,” means releasing stress, reducing crowding, reducing pollution, alleviating hunger, and treating ill health. But these pressures are exactly the sources of concern and actions that will control total population to keep it within the bounds of the fixed world within we live. If the pressures are relaxed, so is the concern about how we impinge on the environment. Population will then rise further until the pressures reappear with an intensity that can no longer be relieved. Trying to raise quality of life without intentionally creating compensating pressure to prevent a rise in population density will be self-defeating. Efforts to improve quality of life will fail until effective means have been implemented for limiting both population and industrialization.

Without effective legal and psychological control, population grows until stresses rise far enough, which is to say that the quality of life falls far enough, to stop further increase. Everything we do to reduce those pressures cause the population to rise farther and faster and hastens the day when expediencies will no longer suffice. People are in the position of a wild animal running from its pursuers. We still have some space, natural resources, and agricultural land left. We can avoid the question of rising population as long as we can flee into this bountiful reservoir that nature provided. But the reservoir is limited. Exponential growth cannot continue. The wild animal flees until he is cornered, until he has no more space. Then he turns to fight, but he no longer has room to maneuver. He is less able to forestall disaster than if he had fought in the open while there was still room to yield and to dodge. The world is running away from its long-term threats by trying to relieve social pressures as they arise. But, if we persist in treating only the symptoms and not the causes, the result will be to increase the magnitude of the ultimate threat and reduce our capability to respond when we no longer have more space and resources to invade.

What does this mean? Instead of automatically attempting to cope with population growth, national and international efforts to relieve the pressures of excess growth must be reexamined. Many such humanitarian impulses seem to be making matters worse in the long run. Rising pressures are necessary to hasten the day when population is stabilized. Pressures can be increased by reducing food production, reducing health services, and reducing industrialization. Such reductions seem to have only slight effect on quality of life in the long run. The principal effect will be in squeezing down and stopping the runaway growth. …

The long-term future of the earth must be faced soon as a guide for present action. Goals of nations and societies must be altered to become compatible with that future, otherwise man remains out of balance with his environment. Man can do vast damage first, but eventually he will yield to the mounting forces of the environment. Can the traditions of civilization be altered to become compatible with global equilibrium?

Jay W. Forrester, World Dynamics, 1973, p. 123-125

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Walter Youngquist

Geologist, draws from his experience in living and working abroad, and travels in some 70 countries to observe the vital relationship of population to available Earth resources. He is particularly concerned about continuing population growth against declining both nonrenewable and renewable resource bases—fertile soil and fresh water being examples of the latter.

Selections from the Introduction, ms. advance copy

We are relative latecomers on the scene, and the Earth existed for several billion years very well without us. But with our arrival and our development of culture to the technological age in which we now live, in a very brief time we have had an impact on the Earth beyond what any other organism has ever had. We therefore live in a unique, and what is likely to be a very brief time in human history. Some of us have been very fortunate to live in these times near or at the top of the pyramid of technological and medical advances. But we are at the same time living at a great turning point in Earth and human history.

It is apparent that current political, economic, and social efforts are to keep things as they are—not to change. People in developed countries do not like changes in their lifestyles … if they believe they are good now. But changes come and are unavoidable. …

As much as the future changed during less than in my lifetime, the future of most of those reading this book will surely be equally or more changed from what is the present. Successfully adjusting to a different future from what has been enjoyed by at least some the past few hundred years is the challenge lying now directly ahead. …

In earlier centuries, with many fewer people, these Earth resources were exploited only very slowly and in minor amounts. But within the past few hundred years, with the arrival of the Industrial Revolution … the rate and volume of resource exploitation has greatly increased, … It was the use of these resources that has been the base for the rise of our present civilization, allowing some segments of society to achieve, … a standard of living never before imagined.

Accompanying this rise in standard of living has been a huge increase in population, from an estimated 610 million in 1700 to the current approximately 6.7 billion. This has been a truly astounding event made possible chiefly by three factors: great medical advances including sanitation, the widespread use of high energy density fossil fuels, and the use of these fossil fuels to greatly enhance agricultural production …

[It] is the huge rise in population and related increased Earth resource consumption … that is probably the salient fact of these truly remarkable recent few centuries. …

But these materials … can be extracted and used only once. … Can we continue to maintain the present high standard of living for some of us, by using truly renewable Earth resources … instead of an inheritance from the past? …

Much of the discussion in the following chapters is related to stress on Earth mineral and energy resources, and stress on the environment from population growth. Equally and perhaps more important … are social stresses resulting in part from depletion of resources, such as water supplies and fertile soils … and resulting food shortages causing riots. Also population is growing … faster than are jobs. … Until recently, the outlet for stress from a growing population was migration … but this outlet no longer exists. …

Even the United States, the United Kingdom, and European countries may show stress in several ways including generally rising unemployment, and antagonism toward immigrant labor …

One fact is abundantly clear: we have already exceeded the permanent carrying capacity of the Earth, and the number one problem is to reduce population in an orderly fashion to fit into the new renewable resources paradigm. …

[Nearly] all governmental leaders worldwide are committed to keeping and expanding the present agendas of resource consumption … with the rallying cry of “sustainable economic growth.” The underlying basic problem of population growth is rarely addressed—absent from most political agendas as being “politically incorrect.” …

[Growth] based upon continuing to exploit the finite resources of the Earth is not possible. Yet this is the current basis of the world’s developing and developed economies. … We need to be as self-sufficient, dependent on resources from local economies … for this has to be a part of any sustainable future. …

History is informative and gives us a perspective on how we came to where we are today. But it is the future in which you will live and the future is “not what it used to be.” But it is now arriving … bringing with it more than 190,000 people each day to live on depleting resources. …

It is the purpose of this volume to provide a perspective on the past, but more importantly provide a possible and hopefully a fairly realistic view of what the future may hold. … [Namely] that on this finite Earth high consuming societies are eventually going to be relegated to being an artifact of history. …

Our modern, developed societies tend to be removed, by their present degree of affluence, from the environment as the basis for our existence. Food comes from the supermarket, clean water comes from the faucet. But the closer people live to the margin of existence, the more they realize the vital importance of fertile soil, and safe drinking water, …

How we try to navigate the choppy waters to the future, will determine to a large extent when and in what condition we will arrive to the new land of sustainable renewable Earth resources. … The continued almost inevitable growth of population … against the depletion of Earth resources combine to form the main challenge before us. …

Those who will be living at the end of this century will see much of this land of the future come into view, but even there and then as now, Earth resources will continue to be the base for human existence and will inevitably exert final control over the destinies of nations and individuals. We are made of Earth materials, and its biological products, and on these we survive. To continue to negatively impact our environment is a form of suicide. “Mother Earth” is not an abstract concept but very much a reality, for from Earth we came, on it we depend for our existence. …

Walter Youngquist, ms. advance copy GeoDestinies, 2009

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The American Example

Obvious Responses Will Not Suffice

The dynamic characteristics of complex social systems frequently mislead people. … [Urban policies for example] are being followed on the presumption that they will alleviate the difficulties. … In fact, a downward spiral develops in which the presumed solution makes the difficulty worse and thereby causes redoubling of the presumed solution so that matters become still worse.

The same downward spiral frequently develops in national government and at the level of world affairs. Judgment and debate lead to programs that appear to be sound. Commitment increases to the apparent solutions. If the presumed solutions actually make matters worse, the process by which this happens is not evident. So, when the troubles increase, the efforts are intensified that are actually worsening the problems.

Jay W. Forrester, 1973, p. 93-94

Figure 1 shows the U.S. standard of living (SL) during 37 years.

Evidence in Figure 1 shows that the U.S. SL grew dramatically from 1965 to its all-time peak in 1973. Then, after an erratic 21 years, it went into an accelerated decline from 2000 to 2007. Moreover, recent data show that the decline accelerated in 2008 and into 2009. Details follow.

Growth–Peak–Decline: From 1965 to 1973 the U.S. SL surged reaching its all time peak in 1973. This was followed by a dip-and-rebound from 1973 to 1979. Then from 1979 to 1983 came a precipitous plunge wherein the U.S. SL fell by 14.5% (8.92 boe/c) in 4 years. A rough recovery came from 1983 to a high in 2000. Then from 2000 to 2007 the U.S. SL declined by 4.1% (2.46 boe/c) in 7 years.

Historical correlations: The U.S. SL grew swiftly during low energy prices from 1965 to 1973. Then in 1973-74 – correlated with an Arab-Israeli war – several OPEC nations banded together and refused to export oil to the U.S. Next in 1979 came the fall of the Shaw of Iran – reputedly a ‘puppet’ of the U.S. – accompanied by a steep rise in the price of oil and a plunge in the U.S. SL from 1979 to 1983. This was followed by an erratic struggle wherein the U.S. SL reached a brief high in 2000. Then, beginning with the Dot.com bust, came the ominous decline from 2000 to 2007.

U.S. population vs. energy: The U.S. population grew from 211,909,000 in 1973 to 301,104,000 in 2007 — an increase of 42.1% or 89,231,000 people in 34 years. At the same time U.S. energy consumption lagged at 31.6%. The net result was that the U.S. SL fell by 7.4% from 1973 to 2007. ³

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The United States annually takes in more immigrants than do all other nations combined. Somalians now live in Minnesota. Sudanese live in Kentucky. Medicaid is received by 14.8 percent of households headed by Americans, and 24.2 percent by households headed by immigrants. Many compassionate Americans feel that it is our duty to take in more and more immigrants. However, at the current rate of approximately 2.5 million a year, this accounts for only 3 percent of the 80 million people added to world population annually. The United States cannot continue to act as a safety valve for even a small portion of world population growth. Very near the U. S., Haiti has 9 million people living in an area smaller than Malheur County Oregon. Haiti is on inte

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DrumBeat: July 3, 2009

Posted in July 3rd, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

Green Power Takes Root in the Chinese Desert
DUNHUANG, China — As the United States takes its first steps toward mandating that power companies generate more electricity from renewable sources, China already has a similar requirement and is investing billions to remake itself into a green energy superpower.
Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China’s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.
While the House of Representatives approved a requirement last week that American utilities generate more of their power from renewable sources of energy, and the Senate will consider similar proposals over the summer, China imposed such a requirement almost two years ago.

Oil hovers above $66 in Asia after weak jobs data
SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $66 a barrel Friday in Asia in light holiday trading a day after grim unemployment numbers from the U.S. and Europe sent crude prices tumbling.

Oil brokerage PVM names rogue trader
LONDON (Reuters) - PVM Oil Futures Limited said on Friday that Steve Perkins, a senior broker based at the firm's London office, was responsible for unauthorized trades earlier this week which landed the firm with a loss of nearly $10 million.
The London-based brokerage said Perkins had taken the unauthorized positions in Brent crude futures early on Tuesday morning.
The heavy buying of Brent futures in Asian trade on Tuesday caused global crude prices to spike to their highest level this year, in a move traders and analysts had previously struggled to explain.

OPEC Says ‘Satisfied’ With Current Crude Oil Price
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC is “satisfied” with the current oil price, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said today in Beijing.
The current price is “good for all of us, the consumers and the producers,” de Vasconcelos said. The world economy has recovered and “this price is a balanced price for us,” he told reporters at the Global Think Tank Summit.

Saudi Arabia May Cut Heavy-Oil Price as Processing Profits Drop
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may lower the official price of its heavy oil grade sold to Asia from a six-year high as processing profit for fuel used by ships and power plants declined in the previous month, refinery officials said.

Qatar to Roll Back Crude Oil Supply Cut in August, Refiners Say
(Bloomberg) -- Qatar Petroleum will supply full contracted volumes of crude oil to term customers in Asia in August, rolling back a 15 percent cut imposed in July on one of its grades, refinery officials said.
The state-owned company last month pledged full volumes of its Qatar Land grade for July, but cut Qatar Marine shipments by 15%, traders at two refiners who hold one-year contracts said today. They asked to remain unidentified because of confidentiality agreements with the supplier.

Europe urged to stockpile gas
European countries were urged to start stockpiling gas reserves for the winter as another gas crisis involving Russia and Ukraine is looming.
The European Commission said a repeat of January's energy shortfall was likely if Ukraine failed to raise €4.2m needed to pay for Russian gas supplies required to fill its storage facilities.

Venezuela, China May Sign New Loan-for-Oil Accord, Chavez Says
(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela and China Development Bank Corp. are discussing a third $4 billion infrastructure loan to be paid in oil, President Hugo Chavez said.
“This bank is the one with the most money in the world,” Chavez said late yesterday on state television. “It has half the money in the world and is allied with Venezuela.”

PetroChina boosts output at Sulige gasfield
BEIJING (Reuters) - Top oil and gas firm PetroChina raised daily output at its largest Sulige gasfield, in northern China's Ordos Basin, to 25.6 million cubic metres, up 67 percent from last July, its parent CNPC said.

The Reasons Behind Big Oil Declining Iraq's Riches
Any notion that the invasion of Iraq was simply an oil grab took another hit on Tuesday when Baghdad opened the bidding on the rights to develop its massive energy reserves. In a day-long auction of eight huge oil fields — some of the world's biggest — virtually all the 41 foreign companies invited to bid by the Iraqi government balked at the Baghdad terms. The only contract signed was a 20-year deal for a consortium led by BP and China's National Petroleum Corporation to develop the giant Rumaila field in southern Iraq. "Frankly I did not think it would be such a fiasco and embarrassment for the government," says Rochdi Younsi, Director of Middle East and Africa for the Eurasia Group in Washington. "It shows the level of disconnect between the Ministry of Oil and the oil companies."

Iraq over optimistic on oil, output to fall - IEA
LONDON (Reuters) - Iraqi plans to raise oil output to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2017 are likely to be over optimistic, the International Energy Agency said on Monday, saying oil capacity could fall over the next two years.
The IEA said in its Medium-Term Oil Market Report it had taken a very conservative view of Iraqi production capacity for 2008/14 despite tremendous international interest in the country's oil development projects.
It forecast Iraqi oil production capacity would fall to as low as 2.23 million bpd in 2010/11 before gradually rising to 2.7 million bpd by 2014. The country's oil production is now between 2.3 million and 2.4 million bpd, industry sources say.

China’s CNPC, Cnooc Group Said to Seek Stake in Repsol’s YPF
(Bloomberg) -- Repsol YPF SA is in talks with China National Petroleum Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. about a sale of a stake in its Argentinean unit, three people familiar with the discussions said.

Nigeria, Algeria, Niger Sign Accord on Gas Pipeline
(Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Algeria and Niger signed an agreement on a proposed Trans-Saharan pipeline that will ship natural gas from Nigeria to Europe.
The accord was signed by Nigerian Petroleum Minister Rilwanu Lukman, Niger’s Energy Minister Mohammed Abdullahi and his Algerian counterpart Chakib Khelil in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, today.

EnCana hit by fifth explosion
An explosion that damaged a natural-gas pipeline in northeast British Columbia this week is likely linked to earlier attacks on energy facilities in the area, the RCMP said yesterday.

US envoy returns to post in Venezuela
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — A U.S. envoy who was expelled last year by President Hugo Chavez said Thursday he hopes to re-establish dialogue after resuming his post in Venezuela.

Ally's Ouster Gives Venezuela's Chávez a Stage, an Opportunity
CARACAS, Venezuela -- An ally was in trouble, toppled in a military coup. And the television cameras were rolling.
The ouster of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya could not have been better scripted for another Latin American leader who has taken center stage: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. The populist firebrand has been Zelaya's most forceful advocate and could win international accolades if the Honduran eventually succeeds in regaining power.

$49M power line project will support crude oil pipeline
A new $49 million electric transmission line is being planned to support the TransCanada Keystone crude oil pipeline project that will run through central Nebraska.

A month with no driving explores a car-crazy culture
Beginning Tuesday follow along with News reporter Fred Davies as he tosses his car keys and embarks on a month of no driving.
A multi-part feature will examine the state of transportation in Oceanside, as he delves into a car crazy (some might say addicted) culture and discovers what all that driving means for livability in the region.
The state of public transit, how municipalities fare in addressing accessibility, health impacts, potential fixes, their cost and who might pay for it, will all be grist for the mill.

Japan may add noise to quiet hybrid cars for safety
TOKYO (AFP) – Japan's near-silent hybrid cars have been called dangerous by the vision-impaired and some users, prompting a government review on whether to add a noise-making device, according to an official.

Spain backtracks on nuclear power phase-out
MADRID (AFP) – Spain's government said Thursday it would allow the country's oldest nuclear reactor to operate beyond its intended 40-year lifespan, reversing a policy of gradually phasing out nuclear power.
Through a combination of carrots and sticks, Beijing is starting to change how this country generates energy. Although coal remains the biggest energy source and is almost certain to stay that way, the rise of renewable energy, especially wind power, is helping to slow China’s steep growth in emissions of global warming gases.

EPA extends comment period on biofuel standard
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday said it was extending the comment period on a draft rule that aims to cut greenhouse gases emitted by biofuels.
The proposed changes to the 2007 U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard attempt to make production of corn-based ethanol more efficient and increase output of advanced biofuels.

Another endangered elephant dies in Indonesia: WWF
Five of the eight elephants have died near or inside the concession area. Three were killed for their tusks and four were poisoned after eating palm oil plants doused in toxic chemicals.
"Some people are trying to protect their palm oil crops in the area by pouring insecticides on the plants. Maybe it's not intentional but it has killed a few elephants," Syamsidar said.
Conflicts between wild animals and humans are on the rise on Sumatra, where legal and illegal logging is rapidly reducing the tropical jungle.

EPA allows TVA to dump spilled coal ash in Ala.
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. – The nation's largest utility can dump millions of tons of coal ash from a Tennessee spill into an Alabama landfill, federal regulators said Thursday, despite criticism that the plan is unfair to one of Alabama's poorest counties.

Exxon, Valero Face New Curbs on Cancer-Causing Gases
(Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama is considering new curbs on U.S. oil refineries whose gas emissions pose a cancer risk to hundreds of thousands of people living near the plants, setting up a potential conflict with companies over the cost of new regulations.
The White House suspended a ruling signed by President George W. Bush four days before he left office that found refiners were adequately controlling benzene and other cancer- causing gases, said Cathy Milbourn, a spokeswoman at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Federal ‘organic’ label’s integrity under fire: Consumers who pay up to twice as much don’t always get what they expect
WASHINGTON - Three years ago, U.S. Department of Agriculture employees determined that synthetic additives in organic baby formula violated federal standards and should be banned from a product carrying the federal organic label. Today the same additives, purported to boost brainpower and vision, can be found in 90 percent of organic baby formula.
The government's turnaround, from prohibition to permission, came after a USDA program manager was lobbied by the formula makers and overruled her staff. That decision and others by a handful of USDA employees, along with an advisory board's approval of a growing list of non-organic ingredients, have helped numerous companies win a coveted green-and-white "USDA Organic" seal on an array of products.

Incredible shrinking sheep blamed on climate change
Sheep living on a remote island off the coast of Scotland have been shrinking for 20 years. Now it seems shorter winters caused by climate change are responsible.

Los Angeles will end use of coal-fired power
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Los Angeles will eliminate the use of electricity made from coal by 2020, replacing it with power from cleaner renewable energy sources, Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said.
Consumers of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, the largest city-owned utility in the United States with 1.45 million electricity customers, will see higher power bills in the fight against climate change, he added in his inaugural speech for his second four-year term as mayor on Wednesday.

Indian FM urges 'ambitious but fair' climate targets
TOKYO (AFP) – India's foreign minister on Friday called for an ambitious but fair greenhouse gas reduction target under a new climate treaty, saying any pact should not hinder the economic growth of developing countries.

Study: Tropical rain band is shifting north - Warming suspected; freshwater shortages for some Pacific isles likely
Earth's most prominent rain band, near the equator, has been moving north at an average rate of almost a mile a year for three centuries, likely because of a warming world, scientists say.
The band supplies fresh water to almost a billion people and affects climate elsewhere.
If the migration continues, some Pacific islands near the equator that today enjoy abundant rainfall may be starved of freshwater by midcentury or sooner, researchers report in the July issue of the journal Nature Geoscience.

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Risk Assessments: Playing the “What If?” Game

Posted in July 2nd, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

I spend a lot of time playing "What if?" It is an important aspect of my line of work, but we all do this to some extent. I do it when I am driving - "What if that car at the next intersection pulls out in front of me?" - when I am working "What if that high pressure line ruptures?" - and at home - "What if I wake up and find the house is on fire?" I also spend a lot of time pondering the "What if there are energy shortages in the near future?"

When we do this, we are generally trying to understand the potential consequences of various responses to a given situation. This sort of exercise is a form of risk assessment, and it is a very important tool for making decisions about events that could impact the future. Sometimes the consequences are minor. If I choose not to take an umbrella to work and it rains, there is probably a small consequence. If I choose to pass a car on a blind hill, the consequence may be severe, and may extend to other people.

In this essay I will explore the implications of the question: "What if I am wrong on peak oil or global warming?"

What If I'm Wrong About Peak Oil?

I guess it was my training as a scientist that instilled in me the position that conclusions are tentative. (I was two years into a Ph.D. in chemistry before I decided the job prospects were better for a chemical engineer). They are subject to revision as additional data come in, and you have to always be willing to consider that your preconceptions may be wrong. But acknowledging that I could be wrong has to go hand-in-hand with the consequences of being wrong.

I have formulated a lot of “what if” questions around timing and consequences of peak oil. My view on peak oil is that it presents an enormous challenge for humanity, that global oil production will peak within 10 years (if it hasn’t peaked already), and that there is no easy solution. I see spiking oil prices and the subsequent fallout as a prelude to what lies ahead. These views have influenced my profession, where I have chosen to live, what I read, and what I say to others. Fear of peak oil has influenced some people not to attend college, or to quit their jobs and move away to remote locations. It has even caused some people to decide against having children. But what if I am wrong about the timing/consequences of peak oil? How would that impact me?

For me, this one has low consequences. If I am wrong and we have adequate oil supplies for the next 40 years, then perhaps I live a more frugal life than I might have otherwise. I prefer to walk, ride a bike, or take a train instead of hopping into a car to drive some place. When I drive, I probably drive a smaller car than I would have otherwise. I grow some of my own food. Then again, I have always been frugal, so perhaps I would have done all of these things regardless. The one thing that it may have impacted upon in a major way is my interest in energy.

But if I am right, then I have plans in place to manage the impact as well as I can. Those plans start with minimizing my energy consumption. It is my small insurance policy. If the worst case turns out to be right, then there isn't a lot I can do except try to make sure my family and I are in circumstances that minimize the risk. Further, I have done a lot of work that is aimed at improving our energy security in the years ahead. That work includes promoting renewable energy technologies that I think can make a long-term contribution, but also arguing for conservation, and better utilization of our own natural resources. So if I am correct, then I have chosen to work on things that have the potential to mitigate the consequences.

But what if the other side is wrong? Government agencies devoted to monitoring our natural resources often reassure us that there is plenty of oil for decades to come. But what if the government, industry, etc. turn out to have missed the mark on peak oil? In that case I think we will be in for a lot of trouble.

If the peak comes quickly and the decline is steep, I believe we will be wholly unprepared. There is not a cheap, easy substitute for oil. Much higher prices will be inevitable in such a situation. Industries - such as the airline industry - won't be prepared and we will see perhaps entire sectors go bankrupt. While I do believe that over time we can transition to natural gas vehicles (and I don’t think the situation with natural gas is as dire), that will take some time. If the government is wrong and the peak happens much sooner than expected, we will be in for a very difficult transition period.

In other words, their consequences of being wrong are much worse than my consequences of being wrong. If they are wrong, people may starve during a difficult post-peak transition. If I am wrong, we move to a healthier, more sustainable lifestyle.

What If I am Wrong on Global Warming?

Another question I think a lot about is "What If I am Wrong on Global Warming?" I come down on the side that human activity is contributing to global warming, yet the scientist in me reminds me that "conclusions are tentative." But each camp has elements that feel – all too often with religious fervor - that the other side’s position will lead to either environmental or economic devastation. So we get a lot of vitriol in this discussion, which I don't like.

If the Al Gore contingent is correct, then we are facing some very major problems. As I have written before, I don't expect us to be able to rein in carbon dioxide emissions, so I see a future with ever higher atmospheric CO2, and potential environmental devastation if Al Gore is correct.

On the other hand are those who believe that human activities play little or no role in global warming. They view the opposition as putting global economies at risk by putting a price on carbon emissions. While I think environmental devastation is a much worse consequence than economic stagnation, the impact of that could be pretty severe as well.

What I would prefer to see – instead of two opposing camps dug into bunkers and tossing verbal grenades at each other – are more open minds on both sides. I would like to see the sides posing the question “What if I am wrong?” Another good question to ask in these sorts of debates is “Is there any evidence that would convince me that I am wrong?” I don't know what scientists will say when they look back at this issue a hundred years from now, but I don't want to see the debate squelched by those who shouted the loudest.

In conclusion, I never discount the possibility that I could be wrong about any number of things. I would say that precious few of my views are embedded in granite. That's why I write; to discuss, debate, learn, and change my mind when reason dictates that. But before you decide to respond to this essay with a strongly worded opinion, ask yourself the question “What if I am wrong?”

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DrumBeat: July 2, 2009

Posted in July 2nd, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

Heading into the holiday: Fewer miles at higher cost
The nation heads into the Independence Day holiday weekend amid the longest and steepest decline in driving since the invention of the automobile.
Since the number of miles traveled by motor vehicles in the USA peaked in November 2007, the nation's 12-month total has dropped by 123 billion miles, or slightly more than 4%. That's a bigger decline than the drop of just above 3% during the 1979-80 Iranian revolution that triggered a spike in gasoline prices in the USA.
The 4% drop is the equivalent of taking between 8 million and 10 million drivers off the road.
"We may be witnessing the beginning of a fundamental shift in American driving habits," says Ed McMahon, senior research fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a non-profit group that promotes innovative development.

Oil Falls to Lowest in a Week on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to the lowest in a week before a report forecast to show U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world’s largest energy user remains mired in recession.
U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 dropped 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Barclays Raises U.S. Oil Forecast 15% on Fundamentals
(Bloomberg) -- Barclays Plc raised its third-quarter forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil by 14.5 percent from an estimate in June, citing expectations for fundamentals in commodity markets to return to “normalcy.”
The forecast for benchmark futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was revised to $71 a barrel from $62, Barclays Capital analysts led by Paul Horsnell said in a weekly report yesterday. Barclays increased its projections for Brent crude by 9.5 percent to $69 a barrel and left forecasts for the fourth quarter and 2010 unchanged.

‘Oil over $100 would hurt global economy’
"Hopefully in the third quarter and fourth quarter, it won't surpass $100 as this will fuel recession again," Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah told reporters in parliament.
Oil had already hit the price that Opec was looking for in the second half of the year, he said. Speculators and US dollar weakness were among the factors behind the rise, Sheikh Ahmad said.

Asian LNG Spot Trade May Shrink 73% This Year, Repsol Says
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments of liquefied natural gas to Asia from the Atlantic Ocean area may shrink by about 73 percent this year as Japan and South Korea, the world’s biggest buyers, cut imports, said an official from Repsol YPF SA.
Supplies of spot LNG from projects from countries such as in Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt and Algeria may fall to about 4 million metric tons this year, or to 2006 levels, from about 15 million last year, said Strategic Planning Director Ane Arino Ochoa at Spain’s largest oil company.
“We expect a reduction in LNG traded this year because of the economic crisis,” she said after speaking at the Next Generation LNG conference in Singapore yesterday. “There will be a surplus of LNG in the global markets in the short term.”

India Gas Demand Set to Rise as Fertilizer Makers Add Capacity
(Bloomberg) -- India’s demand for natural gas is set to increase as fertilizer makers spend as much as 50 billion rupees ($1 billion) in the next three years to boost capacity by 35 percent, an official said.
Fertilizer companies may need an additional 24 million cubic meters a day of gas to feed new plants and existing ones that are switching from using naphtha and fuel oil, Satish Chander, director-general of the Fertilizer Association of India, said by telephone from New Delhi.

India - Econ survey: decontrol petrol, diesel prices
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India should end controls on prices of petrol and diesel and allow entry for private and foreign firms in the energy sector, a finance ministry survey said on Thursday.

PVM Loses About $10 Million in Unauthorized Trades
Bloomberg) -- PVM Oil Futures Ltd., a unit of the world’s biggest broker of over-the-counter oil derivatives, said it lost just under $10 million as a result of unauthorized trading in futures contracts on June 30.
“As a result of a series of unauthorized trades, substantial volumes of futures contracts were held by PVM,” Robin Bieber, director of PVM Oil Futures Ltd., said in an e- mailed statement today. “When this was discovered the positions were closed in an orderly fashion. PVM suffered a loss totaling a little under $10 million.”

BP Pay Changes for Contract Workers Threatens North Sea Strikes
(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, Europe’s second-largest oil company, plans to cut pay for North Sea contract staff, risking strike action later this year.
BP wants to reduce the cost of offshore platform workers employed through contractors and plans to end discretionary payments including overtime built-in to the day rate and automatic night shift payments. The changes cut pay as much as 20 percent for 800 people, union leaders say.

Are we at the peak of oil production?
There are some that believe that the ever increasing rise in gas prices over the past years is a clear indication of peaking. The spike of oil prices and crash in 2008 is said to be the peak point of production. This is a question we cannot fully know the answers to till probably 5 or 10 years out. Raymond James, the investment company that the Buccaneers football team’s stadium is named for, released a press release declaring peak oil: “represents a paradigm shift of historic proportions. Unfortunately, mankind better get ready to live in a peak oil world because we believe the ‘peak’ is now behind us.”

Flashing Lights on the Console
KMO welcomes Albert K. Bates back to the program, and they sit down together for a chat with Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything. Albert admits that he's finding it hard to maintain his "soft lander" status in the face of mounting evidence, and Richard talks about the themes in his new book, Blackout: Coal, Climate and the Last Energy Crisis.

Our idea of progress must change
We've raised our standard of living to record heights -- so high, in fact that, if everyone lived like we do in North America, we would need three or four earths. To keep our way of life rolling along, we need to make more things. As the satirical newspaper The Onion put it, quoting a fictional Chinese worker: "Often, when we're assigned a new order for, say, 'salad shooters,' I will say to myself, there's no way that anyone will ever buy these . . . One month later, we will receive an order for the same product, but three times the quantity . . I hear that [North] Americans can buy anything they want, and I believe it, judging from the things I've made for them. And I also hear that, when they no longer want an item, they simply throw it away. So wasteful and contemptible."
But such is our personal measure of progress: whoever has the most stuff when they die, wins.

Nova Scotia needs a new deal
I want to come back to a second to the beginning of this. I'm not sure that what we want to look at is called "recovery." I think we're talking about a restructuring of the economic system and it won't look the same---it can't look the same. I've got a quote here from George Monbiot, who says, "Climate breakdown, peak oil and resource depletion will all dwarf the current financial crisis, in both financial and humanitarian terms." So unless we start thinking long-term, this current economic meltdown is going to seem like very small potatoes.

Feds, Colo. hash out agreement on oil, gas rules
DENVER — Colorado's new oil and gas rules, denounced by the industry as the most burdensome in the country, now apply to federal land as well as private and state land.
Stricter oil and gas regulations took effect on private and state land in Colorado on April 1. Enforcement of the rules was delayed on federal land to give state and federal officials time to sort through any conflicts.

Oil Contract Rows Rock Uganda Ahead of Production
The Ugandan government is embroiled in disputes with politicians and activists over its failure to reveal the contents of contracts with oil-exploration companies operating in the country ahead of the start of oil production on the Ugandan side of the Albertine Rift on the country's western border.

Iran 'disqualifies' EU from talks
The EU is no longer qualified to take part in talks on Iran's nuclear programme, Iran's military chief says.
Maj-Gen Hassan Firouzabadi, Iran's chief of staff, accused the EU of "interference" in riots which followed June's disputed presidential elections.

Kenya unveils renewable energy drive
NAIROBI (AFP) – Kenya on Wednesday unveiled extensive plans to invest in renewable energy, including free distribution of one million energy-saving light bulbs in exchange for ordinary bulbs.
The measures announced by Prime Minister Raila Odinga also include subsidising the price of solar water heaters for public institutions, firms and households.

Kenya: Sex in a Time of Famine
"Prostitution seems to be the only option out of hunger. The relief food offered by the government is too little and irregular," says Mr Keleli.
About 75 per cent of people in this region live below the poverty line. The land is semi arid and unproductive, with very little economic activity.
Charcoal burning has for a long time been the only means of upkeep. But with the current drought, trees have diminished, leaving residents with no reliable source of livelihood.

Clean Energy Investment Leaps In Second Quarter
LONDON - Global investment in clean energy and climate-friendly technologies leapt in the last three months but full-year levels won't recover until 2010 or 2011, analysts said on Wednesday.
Falling energy demand and more expensive debt have hurt large renewable projects for example in wind and solar power. Recession has cut risk appetite, curbing funding for clean technology start-ups.
But global clean energy investment rebounded in the past three months, after a 44 percent collapse in the first quarter, and stimulus spending could spur a return to last year's funding levels in 2010, according to research group New Energy Finance.
"It's a big bounce back," said Michael Liebreich, NEF chief executive, referring to preliminary numbers to be published later this week or next.

Brazil launches bus powered by hydrogen fuel cells
SAO PAULO – Sao Paulo state officials have launched what they say is Latin America's first passenger bus with an electric engine powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
Gov. Jose Serra says the bus will start test runs on the streets of South America's biggest city in August and will be joined by three similarly powered vehicles next year.

The Future of Transport
With Peak Oil just around the corner, humans are going to be faced with very few options for mobility in the future — stop travelling or find alternative forms of transport. Imagine travelling with dozens of balloons or in a futuristic-looking helium ship or maybe in a car made of vegetables and powered by chocolate. Sound too good to be true? Check out our collection of the craziest forms of green transport.

UK Wind Boom Spikes Prices, Threatens Plants: Study
LONDON - The dramatic growth in wind turbines around the British Isles may lead to huge spikes in power prices by 2030 and threaten the viability of backup plants needed for calm periods, according to Poyry Energy Consulting.
Britain and Ireland have ambitious targets to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, with wind turbines expected to reduce most of the climate warming gasses from the power sector.
But the level of wind energy envisaged will lead to extreme price swings by 2030, with times of negative prices when the wind blows hard and spikes to almost 8,000 pounds per megawatt hour when the wind drops, according to a new study by Poyry.

Group: World failing to halt biodiversity decline
GENEVA – Governments are failing to stem a rapid decline in biodiversity that is now threatening extinction for almost half the world's coral reef species, a third of amphibians and a quarter of mammals, a leading environmental group warned Thursday.
"Life on Earth is under serious threat," the International Union for Conservation of Nature said in a 155-page report that describes the past five years of a losing battle to protect species, natural habitats and geographical regions from the devastating effects of man.

Brazil flora risk greater than thought: study
RIO DE JANEIRO (AFP) – Nearly 2,300 plant species are at risk of disappearing from flora-rich Brazil, many more than once thought, according to an academic study released on Wednesday.
The research, carried out by 175 scientists, indicates the Brazilian government has dramatically underestimated the risk to the country's plant species caused by deforestation, fires and urbanization.

Controlling Immigration Critical to Meeting Goals on U.S. Greenhouse Emissions, Finds New Report by FAIR
Immigration, Energy and the Environment addresses America's stifled immigration policy debate: it finds that America's massive immigration-fueled population growth was the single largest contributing factor to the nation's increased energy consumption and carbon emissions over the past 35 years. Even without a massive amnesty for illegal aliens supported by President Obama and congressional leaders, immigration will be the driving factor as U.S. population approaches the half billion mark by mid-century.

Canada and Japan blocking climate-change deal, Sir David King warns
Canada and Japan were blocking a possible deal on climate change at the Copenhagen summit, Sir David King, the former Chief Scientific Adviser, warned yesterday.
Speaking at the World Conference of Science Journalists, Sir David said that the two countries had stepped into the breach left by the Bush Administration, which had strongly resisted cutting CO2 emissions.
“Copenhagen is faltering at the moment,” said Sir David. “The Americans are now fully engaged. But several countries are blocking the process.”

Senate May Pass U.S. Climate Bill, Reject Treaty, Kerry Says
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Senate may pass legislation to slow climate change and then fail to approve a global treaty that commits nations to do so, Senator John Kerry said.
Kerry, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, will be a leader in Senate efforts to place the first domestic curbs on greenhouse gases, after the House approved a measure last week. Even if a Senate bill passes, there may not be enough support to ratify an international accord incorporating the U.S. commitments, the Massachusetts Democrat said in an interview.

China blasts US climate bill
BEIJING (AFP) – China said on Thursday that it was "firmly" opposed to provisions in a new US clean energy bill that will make it easier to impose trade penalties on nations that reject limits to globe-warming pollution.
"China is firmly opposed to such measures," vice foreign minister He Yafei told reporters in Beijing.
"We are firmly against such attempts to advance trade protectionism under the pretext of climate change. It is not conducive to world economic recovery. It serves nobody's interests."

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The Slope of Dysfunction

Posted in July 2nd, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=472&Itemid=1 The Slope of Dysfunction by Dmitry Orlov 27 June 2009 Editor's note:

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Are we at peak oil?

Posted in July 1st, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

http://blogs.creativeloafing.com/dailyloaf/2009/07/01/peak-production-of-oil/ Latest blog post for Tampa Bay Area, Florida

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E85 (ethanol) falters

Posted in July 1st, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

http://www.startribune.com/business/49558512.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUUsZ Minnesotans, living in the corn ethanol heartland,

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Re: Green walls of silence….comment by EP

Posted in July 1st, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

Power down. Yes, it is inevitable. Thanks for the detailed reply. I wonder whether the "new electric cars" push is little more than small companies grabbing

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Alcatraz: the TOD-ASPO gathering

Posted in July 1st, 2009

by Ugo Bardi in Peak Oil

Nate Hagens gives his presentation at the "Peak Summit" in Alcatraz. 114 slides in 45 minutes for what may be a true world record in information concentration.

The joint TOD-ASPO summit in Alcatraz, Italy, is over. It was held on the 27-28 June 2009, with the participation of more than fifty people that came mainly from Europe, but also from the US and even from Australia. The participants exchanged views on such subjects as resource depletion, oil and gas, energy security, climate change, complexity, the collapse of the Roman Empire, economic trends, and how to catch monkeys (the last item as part of Nate Hagens talk).

The idea of the summit was to do something more informal and more friendly than the standard ASPO conference. The idea was also to get together people who, so far, had only managed to speak to each other via the internet. It worked: the meeting was very lively, interesting and participated.

The success of the meeting was also helped by the friendly atmosphere and the good food (and good wine) provided by the staff of the "Libera Università di Alcatraz", located between Perugia and Gubbio, among hills and forest in the heart of Italy.

The meeting was jointly organized by Ugo Bardi and Rembrandt Koppelaar, with much help from other people. As soon as possible, we'll see to make the presentations available on line. More than one of the participants said that we should do it again next year. Maybe that could be done, we'll see.

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Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?

Posted in July 1st, 2009

by peakoil in Peak Oil

On a steamy Friday night my 10 year old son and I headed over to the rodeo grounds. It is only about a mile from our home and within the city limits, though on the eastern edge where the town merges into the valley landscape of pastures and tree-lined creeks and ditches.

As we approached, it was obvious that a large crowd had gathered. A long line extended from the ticket booth and the stands looked nearly full. Friends had tipped me off about what was going on only 10 minutes earlier, while thousands of others had obviously been looking forward to this event.

It was a truck pull.

On a hot summer night truck pull fans fill the stadium at the rodeo grounds in Willits, CA. Behind the dust is a weighted sled, called Terminator, that eventually forces the truck to stall. Truck pull images by Ree Slocum.

I place this sport in the same category as NASCAR, demolition derby, drag racing, and motor cross: An internal combustion engine of one sort or another propels a vehicle with a driver. Speed, power, agility, longevity or luck may sort among winners and losers. In this particular version, a weighted sled steadily increases the resistance the further it travels. Vehicles pull until they stop, usually in an engine stall and a cloud of dust.

Because Willits is a relatively small town, anonymity is not possible once you become involved in community affairs. I am on the board of a couple of non-profits related to energy and sustainability, have a radio show on a local station, two kids in the school system, and run a small farm that serves local customers. I brought attention to the subject of peak oil in October of 2005 by showing the film The End of Suburbia every other week for about a year.

I offer this background because people who know me would likely surmise (correctly) that if I were “supreme ruler” nothing like this would ever happen.

I asked a city councilor in attendance (the same person who alerted me to its occurrence) if this event is in conflict with the City’s pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 90% below 2005 levels by 2050, a goal I had a hand in developing? The City of Willits and a who’s who of community organizations also signed a sustainability vision statement I wrote. Was this part of that vision? She just smiled and remarked that energy isn’t expensive enough yet.

I was recognized by a member of the Frontier Day’s Committee, which are the folks who run the rodeo grounds. He sided up to me to verbalize how he saw the equations balancing out with respect to the spectacle. “Using a lot of fuel, aren’t they?” He spoke directly into my ear to compensate for the cylinder blasts. “But you know, this is a big crowd and it really helps us cover the cost of our lease. It’s the first time we’ve done this.” I simply smiled and gave a nod.

The crowd was big. Ten times bigger, in fact, than any I had been able to attract with notions of peak oil, economic collapse, relocalization, renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, or a host of other hot topics. What should I make of that?

My son shouted out a running commentary that reflected my own mixed emotions. As the announcer explained in testosterone-laden tones, the turbo diesels spent about a minute “Building their Boost!” before releasing the clutch. During this process, black soot emerged from pairs of thick chrome pipes to neck craning heights, which served to tense the crowd. On several such occasions my son looked up at me to say, “They’re polluting the Earth!” And yet, perhaps ten seconds later as the truck stalled some 300 ft down the dirt track we whooped excitedly with everybody else.

Our brains were being whip lashed by dueling neurotransmitters. The neocortex was giving us one signal, namely “Polluting Earth Bad,” while the limbic system was giving us countervailing signals, specifically “THIS IS SO COOL!” In fact, that is the other phrase my son used often that night. So on a cycle that repeated every several minutes, I would pump my fists and shout “YEAH!”, but as the rush of dopamine waned, nagging concerns regarding the energy expenditure would re-emerge. Sometimes the motions of a really fine vehicle, such as the ones propelled by jet engines, would keep me “amped” even while the track was being prepared between runs by rumbling dozers, rollers, and the periodic water truck. (I am not going to delve into the neurophysiology and evolution of the brain in this post. Please see this one instead.)

I found myself drawn to the particular form of White Lightening. It wasn't of the largest class of trucks, and the length of its pull disappointed somewhat, but the elegance of its lines and the beauty of its exhaust flames can't be denied.

It wasn’t only the fuel injection on a 2000 hp engine going full tilt for 10 seconds that bothered me, but the knowledge that these beasts were coming from all over the state. The names of the vehicles I remember include White Lightning, Semper Fi and Get it Done (which ended up being the big winner, pulling the Terminator sled over 350 ft, dragging it out of bounds and finishing in a perilous side-ways slide). The geographic names included San Luis Obispo, Red Bluff and Bakersfield. And my son and I constituted the majority of the subpopulation that made it to the rodeo grounds via the most energy efficient transportation device every made—the humble bike running at less than one horsepower and burning non-fossil carbohydrate fuels.

I don’t want anybody to get the impression that I judge the people who regularly attend diversions such as the truck pull much differently than my own cohort. The following is a list of low Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI) activities undertaken by friends and family. These are people who I have personally addressed on the subjects dear to readers of The Oil Drum, and some of them even help me try to “save” civilization, the planet, and other important stuff.

• Fly to Las Vegas to see Cirque du Soleil. This is remarkably common and not limited to any one individual. The most recent “must see show” was The Beatles Love, and I admit it looks awfully tempting!

Although I have not seen the performance, I gather from this image that I would be pleasured by it.

• Spend a week on a Cajun Dance Cruise ship. My wife and I are invited to this one yearly, and it is especially difficult to pass up.

• Ski in the Rockies. Ski in the Sierras, etc.

• Vacations in Europe, Asia, etc.

I haven’t done any carbon footprint analysis to compare the truck pull to the diversions more in line with my own tastes and those of my peers. Obviously they all use gargantuan amounts of energy.

I am a firm believer in the notion that the one-time endowment of Earthly oil should be viewed as a precious gift, and that if any of it needs to be used to it should be allocated towards deploying the technology and infrastructure that would lower our ecological footprint enough not to despoil our home. Anytime I see gallons of fossil fuels being burned I realize that the btus released are enormous, dwarfing the potential power output of human bodies or domesticated animals. Without a renewable energy infrastructure in place before depletion of oil sets in, I fear social convulsions of the worst sort. For example, if we lose our energy slaves will we somehow justify human ones again?

And yet we burn it up so frivolously. This final quote from my son summarizes the situation aptly: "Dad, this is so crazy!"

Nate Hagens and I discussed this topic as part of one of our radio interviews. On that program Nate recommended trying to discover diversions that use little energy, in other words, have a high DREI. I doubt most of the crowd at the truck pull had listened to any of my shows. But even among those of us “in the know,” a challenge we face is dealing with the addictive aspects of energy intensive activities.

On the way back home I met John Jeavons and related my recent experiences. He commented on a time in Mexico, where he was teaching GROW BIOINTENSIVE farming in a workshop. It was in a port city and one day an impressively enormous cruise ship loomed over the docks, its thousands of passengers disgorging into the streets and tourist shops. He thought about the amount the urine and feces produced each day on a ship like that, how much food could be grown with it, and knowing that the mineral wealth of the modern food system and the resulting effluent came from mines and natural gas wells that were low entropy geological riches scooped up using machines running on oil…and yet it was all being dispersed into the ocean.

We like to share stories on Campfire. So I’d like to hear from you about the following:

1. Have you been able to move away from low DREI habits and replace them with high DREI ones?
2. What experiences have you had like mine and John Jeavons’, being simultaneously awed and disgusted by the excesses of our world?
3. Why should I deprive myself of the great hedonistic pleasures of the age of oil if I can still afford them since very few others willingly curtail?
4. Is information sufficient to change behavior, and if not, what does?
5. I recognized very few faces at the truck pull, even though I live in a small town. What does this say about the cultural diversity of society and does that diversity make it more or less challenging to adapt to change?

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