I have examined the work done by Tom Wayburn on de-materialism. He considers hypothetical economies that may well be appreciably better than the existing

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I have examined the work done by Tom Wayburn on de-materialism. He considers hypothetical economies that may well be appreciably better than the existing

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PODLESNY, Russia ? The fields around this little farming enclave are among the most fertile on earth. But like tens of million of acres of land in this

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PODLESNY, Russia ? The fields around this little farming enclave are among the most fertile on earth. But like tens of million of acres of land in this

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From the NY Times, August 31, 2008 US Gulf Oil Output At A Trickle Ahead Of Gustav By REUTERS Filed at 8:04 p.m. ET HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. energy companies

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*News at http://candobetter.org/* Australian aid to preserve overseas rainforests does not absolve it from domestic rainforest destruction

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Washington is lucky that China is not taking advantage of this crisis to help Russia inflict a crippling lesson. Russia holds $580bn of foreign reserves. China

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Washington is lucky that China is not taking advantage of this crisis to help Russia inflict a crippling lesson. Russia holds $580bn of foreign reserves. China

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One of the benefits of running this site as long as we have is that it can now act as a diary through which, should you wish, you can go back and see how the story unfolded for the three hurricanes that created so much devastation in 2005.

We did not do a lot of reporting on Dennis which came to land in Florida on July 10th, 2005. Though it was this hurricane, the first of the three, that damaged the Thunder Horse drilling platform that has only just been brought back on site, just in time to meet Gustav.

There was a note on the impending threat on July 9 but Prof G hadn’t yet started putting together the resources that he did with Katrina and Rita. However there was a precursor of coming problems when in the post showing Thunder Horse damage it was noted that nine of the rigs damaged by Ivan the year before had not yet been repaired.

Prof G began Katrina coverage on August 26th and you can follow through the successive posts as the risk, and then the damage was described in successive posts. There had been, earlier that summer, a Fox TV movie called “The Oil Storm” in which a hurricane took out The LOOP the offshore oil port, and that was predicted to raise prices from $50 to $70 a barrel. What a difference three years make!

One problem that arose at the time was with the supplies of fuel into South Florida, which got its fuel by water from NOLA, and which for a while ran short. It is interesting to note the optimism that is quoted from the refinery folk about how soon they thought the refineries would be back on line. There were national gas shortages by August 31. As has since developed there is a lot more information in the comments than just in the original posts.

Rita first appears in a comment on September 18, with the main posts starting on September 19th , and the first assessment of damage on Sept 24 just after it came ashore.

All of these have been “teachable” moments. Just as I presume this one will be as well.

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We now have Gustav as a Category 3, however the LOOP offshore oil facility, where America uploads approximately 1.2 million barrels of imports each day, directly in the hurricane path, as well as refining and other infrastructural damage the models.

Here is the first update today from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

Here’s the 06z NHC (current forecast issued at 5am). I think it’s on the hot side, but their job is evacuation, not damage prediction. The LOOP is my main concern at this stage. It’s an important piece of infrastructure, and it is right in the bullseye. A 20 mile left or right shift, and 10 or 15 knots of wind speed means the difference between days and months of repair/recovery time. NHC track is Bad for the LOOP; some tracks to the east are better (not so good for NOLA, though).

UPDATE: 09:31 EST 8/31 - Graphic below is damage models based on official NHC hurricane forecast track, key is below. Numbers are below the fold.

Damage estimates using NHC 06z forecast-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

There are many resources under the fold (by clicking “there’s more” in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments.

We continue to hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let’s hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.
[break]
Update from Matthew Simmons, of Simmons International:

LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be “litered” by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lenghty timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)

Click map to go to WUnderground

(UPDATED 09:59am 8/31)
Here are this mornings comments and estimates from Chuck Watson:

Model landfalls and intensities for key models remain close -
interesting that HWRF 06z run was worse damage, 06z GFDL was almost
identical.  Don't expect NHC to change anything much in the next package.

HWRF ATCF Forecast Time: 2008083106
14 day:    8.34 MMBBL ( 51.80% normal), gas   58.51 BCF ( 65.30% normal)
30 day:   22.67 MMBBL ( 65.71% normal), gas  145.46 BCF ( 75.76% normal)
60 day:   54.29 MMBBL ( 78.68% normal), gas  319.37 BCF ( 83.17% normal)
90 day:   86.90 MMBBL ( 83.96% normal), gas  499.00 BCF ( 86.63% normal)
6 mon :  189.68 MMBBL ( 91.63% normal), gas 1067.28 BCF ( 92.65% normal)
1 year:  402.43 MMBBL ( 95.87% normal), gas 2245.36 BCF ( 96.12% normal)

So the 6 month outage forecast has worsened from last night.
HWRF 6 month forecast trend
30/12z:  185.95 MMBBL ( 89.83% normal), gas 1040.04 BCF ( 90.28% normal)
31/00z:  192.79 MMBBL ( 93.14% normal), gas 1092.81 BCF ( 94.86% normal)
31/06z:  189.68 MMBBL ( 91.63% normal), gas 1067.28 BCF ( 92.65% normal)

Here is the early am commentary 09:49 am 8/31:

--
Gustav is looking pretty ragged this morning.  It will probably recover
some strength, but I think it's well below the NHC estimated intensity
right now. The modeled intensities have dropped as well.  Compare, for
example, the 6 month production estimates from HWRF (which has been
pessimistic):
30/12z:  185.95 MMBBL ( 89.83% normal), gas 1040.04 BCF ( 90.28% normal)
31/00z:  192.79 MMBBL ( 93.14% normal), gas 1092.81 BCF ( 94.86% normal)

On the other hand, the NHC forecast trend is depressing:
Official Forecast:
30/18z:  152.45 MMBBL ( 73.65% normal), gas 1040.40 BCF (  90.31ormal)
31/06z:  139.37 MMBBL ( 67.33% normal), gas  972.17 BCF ( 84.39% normal)

Important Safety Tip: it is VITAL that folks DO NOT use our info for
evacuation planning (this means you, Alan!).  Our discussions here are
with respect to a bunch of hardware, not feline or even human lives.  We
don't want to be wrong on  either the high or low side, especially since
being wrong on the high side has bad consequences for pricing, that's
why I keep emphasizing this thing may not be as bad as the models are
predicting because there are signs and portents the storm will not gain
as much strength as forecast.  If you are in an evacuation zone, get
your pets, get your insurance paperwork, and GET OUT.

--
A note on our modeling process:  we take the official NHC track, the raw
computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own
in-house fast cycle track/intensity models.  These track and intensity
estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes
the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our
database of over 50,000  elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms,
pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering
models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and
estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg
if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can't pump and the
downstream elements don't get product).

Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds, as well as post another story on why Hurricane Gustav or any exogenous supply event is potentially critical in a world with little slack in supply of high quality oil.

PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION

Here’s a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.

Just to give you a rough idea of where things are, the map above is a probability swath for Katrina (OLD TRACK MAP!) with the Thunder Horse platform as the red dot, and the other purple dot represents the Mad Dog development (100,000 bd); the Holstein development that produces at peak, around 100,000 bd of oil; and the Atlantis field that may have ramped up to around 200,000 bd in all. Put together these projects have the potential of around 650,000 bd, but as can be seen, they were sitting in an uncomfortable spot relative to the track of the Katrina.The white dot is where Port Fourchon is.  This is where the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP, is located. Rigzone pointed out that this is where the foreign tankers offload, Google and Terraserve maps you can see that the area is very low-lying.  One of the big concerns is that there will be sub-sea landslides or other ground movement that might affect the LOOP.  Were this to be disrupted, then foreign tankers would need to be diverted elsewhere, with the likely port being Houston.

Here is a really good link/map (from “Rod and Reel” no less) of the LA southern coastline showing all of the Submersible and Floater Gulf rigs.

We have accumulated resources from previous hurricans below, but we’d like to find updated materials if you know of them. Recent refinery maps, recent rig maps in the gulf, recent gas fields, SPR facilities, the Intercoastal Canal, pipeline stations and transfer points, etc., etc. Leave links in the comments please.

Also, here’s the EIA’s Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here’s a link to the national page.

Here’s another good resource for infrastructure maps and such. (scroll down a bit)

Here’s a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)

Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)

Here’s a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston’s importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm…hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.

Here’s a link to Rigzone’s coverage of Gustav.

You want a detailed map? Well here’s the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)

Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co was kind enough to send us this map. The map below captures only deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread…we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon–important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago. Please leave personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to hurricane for the other upcoming ‘bigger picture’ posts, as yesterdays information was difficult to upload for those on dial-up)

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